Quote:
Originally Posted by Finnegan
EV isn't going to be feasible for folks living in rural or semi-rural areas at current rates.
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This is an excellent observation that not a lot of pundits consider. It's one thing to own an EV that has the range to get you
through a rural area that has no charging stations (and only along, say, an Interstate to boot). It's a totally different thing to actually
live in this rural area and consider an EV as a vehicle -- and only as personal transport. EVs are a long way off from functioning as freight tractors, heavy-duty pickups, box transports, autonomous buses, construction equipment ... This one thing will keep dino engines from disappearing completely for at
least 20-30 years.
What about the tend toward hyperlocal alternative electricity generation (solar, wind, etc.), in the U.S. and elsewhere? How in the heck can a house that's mostly 'off the grid' generate the voltage to charge multiple vehicles as well as the rest of its systems? Such self-contained systems are only in the purvey of the rich and environmentally motivated, and they won't be mainstream for a long time -- and the only way they'll become mainstream is if homebuilders are incentivized to create them en masse by (you guessed it!) a government. Fat chance of that happening in this country for a long, long time (short of war over dwindling dino resources worldwide, recent new sources notwithstanding). In the meantime, it's the existing grid that'll need to take the hit -- and the existing grid has massive, potentially catastrophic issues even at current (pun slightly intended) usage, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest.
Also: as EV market share will increase, government incentives will decrease. Even in small, affluent-per-capita, save-the-earth-mad countries like the Netherlands and Norway, those tax breaks will eventually disappear because, hey: the government's gotta bring in income, too ...
... finally: Someone please tell me how the following vehicles will operate without dino fuel in the next 20-30 years:
- aircraft
- cargo ships
- military transports of all types (except your nuclear-powered naval vessels)
- railroad locomotives that haul freight
Can corn-based ethanol power high-efficiency jet engines? Can nuclear reactors be re-tasked to power the ships that brought your BMW to the States (or wherever) from Europe? Will the military ever give a flip about converting existing (and commissioning replacement) vehicles to use alternative fuels until that fuel is no longer alternative? I mean, think about it: an EV tank? An EV Osprey? An EV C-130? Never, ever gonna happen.
And how much is
any of that gonna
cost? Trillions. Not billions.
Trillions. Maybe more.
... yeah. In most of the world (Holland and Norway aren't typical countries), EVs will be a viable option for some, but not most, for at least 50 years, IMHO. They will simply be an option -- one among several -- and there are vehicles everyone depends on that will never be electric because, well, it's basically not scientifically or fiscally possible.
Finally ... How's a country like India, where 3-4 percent pay income tax and infrastructure varies wildly from hyperadvanced to pre-medieval, supposed to go electric?