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Maybe I'm missing something, but why don't you get a sample of the wrap material and see how it looks when held up next to your splitter? Any half-decent wrap shop should have a swatch booklet, though the swatches are usually really small. You could probably also call the wrap manufacturers (e.g. 3M or Avery) and ask it to send you a sample.
I'm not sure I've seen a gloss carbon fibre wrap in person...or, if I have, I couldn't tell it wasn't real carbon fibre. In my opinion, wrap materials are pretty convincing.
Lastly, I have a complete wrap on my car, including the door handles, mirrors, roof, side vents, rear spoiler, and lower rear valence. The accents are done in glossy black, including the rear valance. I haven't had any problems with the exhaust and I have an aftermarket system with larger tips. I don't notice any discoloration, fading, melting, or disintegration. If there is any, it isn't obvious. Before installation, I asked the installer--which did a good job and is highly respected--if wrapping near the tips would be a problem and he said no. Remember, worst case is it DOES have a problem and you have to remove it. I think wrapped the lower rear valence is relatively easy. But keep in mind that the mirrors and door handles are actually a bit of a PITA.
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