Twitter Trainwreck

[gatorfast]

Funny how much politics affects people's view of things. If some liberal bought Twitter and fired half the company the conservatives would be laughing at what a woke dumpster fire the company was. Crazy polarizing world we live in.

[RickFLM4]

Originally Posted by gatorfast

Funny how much politics affects people's view of things. If some liberal bought Twitter and fired half the company the conservatives would be laughing at what a woke dumpster fire the company was. Crazy polarizing world we live in.

I don't think it matters who bought the company to laugh at it for being a woke dumpster fire.

[3.0L]

I guess this hints that people can make big bucks, even if they're a$$holes.

But still the question: "Do you have to be an a$$hole to make big money."

[chris719]

No matter what, this isn’t going to end well from a financial standpoint for Musk. Let’s just take a step back from the cultural aspect and think about the move.

He bought a slightly troubled company at the peak of a bubble for a premium that was high enough he tried to back out of the original 54.20 (so cool) per share deal. The company was purchased for over 50x EBITDA. It has struggled to monetize eyeballs because of the clean, short form text presentation that is the core of the product. Subscription services for platforms that are 100% user generated content have traditionally not done well. His moves tend to be moves that are going to reduce content moderation also, which is at direct odds with what advertisers want.

You can fire as many people as you want, that’s not the real problem here. The problem is Twitter is, was, and won’t be worth even close to the impulse purchase price he paid for it anytime soon. If anyone other than Elon Musk bought Twitter for that price and made the same moves, their sanity would be questioned and their investors might even sue them.

[Sedan_Clan]

Originally Posted by Onesie

You're the second one bringing politics into the discussion.

You seem to be implying Musk is not a liberal…

This has nothing to do with politics or your view on politics and their followers.

The divide here is all having an opinion with little information.

On one side, the OP and others saying Musk is making a mistake.
On the other side, people saying he is doing the right thing because the company needed it (I am on this camp).

We are both wrong because we don't have enough information about the company (Musk spent MONTHS looking at classified information to us to decide what to do) and experience to make any claim. We're just throwing rocks here…

I sit on my camp because I refuse to say I know more than Musk and could do better than him, which ends up being the claim of the other camp (including those who said nothing valuable but had good choices of words for Musk).

Politics has NOTHING to do with his business decisions. Saying this is like saying Musk is willing to lose money to defend his political views. Does one actually believe that? Hard to believe it but I will if you say you do…

Originally Posted by RickFLM4

I don't think it matters who bought the company to laugh at it for being a woke dumpster fire.

+1 to both of these posts.

[DETRoadster]

Originally Posted by chris719

The company was purchased for over 50x EBITDA.

This. Case closed, IMHO. Thanks for posting this chris719. That's a stat I was not aware of. I was basing my "trainwreck" status off his behavior. But 50x EBITDA? Holy shit, man! Now that's next level bonkers.

I'm sure someone will jump on here and try to defend a 50x EBITDA purchase. "He's a visionary", "He knows what he's doing", "he has a plan." Well he damn well better. Twitter is ad revenue fed and Musk has spooked his advertisers. He may well have some grand plan to monetize the shit out of Twitter and I'm eager as anyone to see what it is. But right now, it's not looking good.

[chris719]

Originally Posted by Onesie

Like I said before, what you’re saying right now doesn’t prove anything. No investment pays off in a week.

I’ll check this thread again next year. Peace out guys, keep saying you know more than big investors. I sure don’t so I’ll wait and chat with you guys next year.

Big investors bought into FTX too, lol.

[gatorfast]

Originally Posted by Onesie

You’re the second one bringing politics into the discussion.

You seem to be implying Musk is not a liberal…

This has nothing to do with politics or your view on politics and their followers.

The divide here is all having an opinion with little information.

On one side, the OP and others saying Musk is making a mistake.
On the other side, people saying he is doing the right thing because the company needed it (I am on this camp).

We are both wrong because we don’t have enough information about the company (Musk spent MONTHS looking at classified information to us to decide what to do) and experience to make any claim. We’re just throwing rocks here…

I sit on my camp because I refuse to say I know more than Musk and could do better than him, which ends up being the claim of the other camp (including those who said nothing valuable but had good choices of words for Musk).

Politics has NOTHING to do with his business decisions. Saying this is like saying Musk is willing to lose money to defend his political views. Does one actually believe that? Hard to believe it but I will if you say you do…

I was not implying politics had anything to do with Musks business decisions. I was simply saying that people's opinion of him and his relationship with Twitter is strongly influenced by their political bias. He has become somewhat of a conservative hero of recent by calling out what he sees as PC culture, defending conservative misinformation spreaders like Trump, and even promoting misinformation himself with his recent Pelosi tweet. Thus, for people that favor that brand of politics they naturally are quick to agree with or defend his actions.

[DETRoadster]

Originally Posted by Onesie

Like I said before, what you’re saying right now doesn’t prove anything. No investment pays off in a week.

I’ll check this thread again next year. Peace out guys, keep saying you know more than big investors. I sure don’t so I’ll wait and chat with you guys next year.

Hey, I've got a sweet used car to sell you. I'm asking 50x what it's listed for on KBB, but trust me, it's a classic and you'll make a return on your investment some day.

[Sedan_Clan]

Originally Posted by gatorfast

I was not implying politics had anything to do with Musks business decisions. I was simply saying that people's opinion of him and his relationship with Twitter is strongly influenced by their political bias. He has become somewhat of a conservative hero of recent by calling out what he sees as PC culture, defending conservative misinformation spreaders like Trump, and even promoting misinformation himself with his recent Pelosi tweet. Thus, for people that favor that brand of politics they naturally are quick to agree with or defend his actions.

Sooooo……


….are we ignoring all of the misinformation spread by the left [much of it on Twitter]?!?…..because there's plenty of that. It is undeniable that Twitter's censorship algorithm affected conservatives significantly while favoring left leaning politics.

[gatorfast]

Originally Posted by Sedan_Clan

Sooooo……


….are we ignoring all of the misinformation spread by the left [much of it on Twitter]?!?..,,,because there's plenty of that.

Not ignoring misinformation of any kind. I'm talking about Musk, Twitter, and his conservative following. Anyway, not looking to start a political discussion. I was merely stating my observation of how political viewpoint tends to put you for or against Musk.

[Sedan_Clan]

Originally Posted by gatorfast

Not ignoring misinformation of any kind. I'm talking about Musk, Twitter, and his conservative following. Anyway, not looking to start a political discussion. I was merely stating my observation of how political viewpoint tends to put you for or against Musk.

I get that. I'm just saying Musk fell into favor because his position is, or seems to be, "Regardless of your political leanings, you all deserve a seat at the metaphorical Twitter table."….


…and that wasn't really the case prior to his acquisition.


Many people don't care for Musk's eccentric personality, but many people respect him for trying to make the political playing field more neutral.

[RickFLM4]

Originally Posted by DETRoadster

This. Case closed, IMHO. Thanks for posting this chris719. That's a stat I was not aware of. I was basing my "trainwreck" status off his behavior. But 50x EBITDA? Holy shit, man! Now that's next level bonkers.

I'm sure someone will jump on here and try to defend a 50x EBITDA purchase. "He's a visionary", "He knows what he's doing", "he has a plan." Well he damn well better. Twitter is ad revenue fed and Musk has spooked his advertisers. He may well have some grand plan to monetize the shit out of Twitter and I'm eager as anyone to see what it is. But right now, it's not looking good.

I’m sure you realize there are companies like Uber, Rivian and others that have negative EBITDA but still have valuations in the tens of billions because investors are betting on long term prospects. Same concept here by Musk. No idea if it will work or not, but saying a crazy high multiple is a definitive sign of a trainwreck is no more logical than saying it will all work out just because he’s a visionary. It’s just a metric using historical data that presumably looks a lot different than what he is projecting.

[RickFLM4]

Originally Posted by gatorfast

Not ignoring misinformation of any kind. I'm talking about Musk, Twitter, and his conservative following. Anyway, not looking to start a political discussion. I was merely stating my observation of how political viewpoint tends to put you for or against Musk.

Based on your comments, I think you are letting your own political views influence what you think you observe.

[chris719]

Originally Posted by RickFLM4

I’m sure you realize there are companies like Uber, Rivian and others that have negative EBITDA but still have valuations in the tens of billions because investors are betting on long term prospects. Same concept here by Musk. No idea if it will work or not, but saying a crazy high multiple is a definitive sign of a trainwreck is no more logical than saying it will all work out just because he’s a visionary. It’s just a metric using historical data that presumably looks a lot different than what he is projecting.

Yes, but Twitter doesn't / didn't and probably won't have as lofty a valuation. If he did an IPO tomorrow he'd have lost his shirt. Twitter was already a mature product and the market was starting to lose patience with the company before Elon stepped in. Twitter sued Elon to force him to complete the purchase because they knew no one else would ever overpay as much.

I don't see any evidence that Elon has any plan that would justify the amount he paid. IMO, this is an ego move and nothing else. It will be very costly for him and Tesla.

[RickFLM4]

Originally Posted by chris719

Yes, but Twitter doesn't / didn't and probably won't have as lofty a valuation. If he did an IPO tomorrow he'd have lost his shirt. Twitter was already a mature product and the market was starting to lose patience with the company before Elon stepped in. Twitter sued Elon to force him to complete the purchase because they knew no one else would ever overpay as much.

I don't see any evidence that Elon has any plan that would justify the amount he paid. IMO, this is an ego move and nothing else. It will be very costly for him and Tesla.

What deal could ever IPO the next day and make money? You pay a control premium in an acquisition and sell noncontrolling interests in an IPO.

Maybe it will be a giant loss. Maybe it won’t. I have no idea. I don’t think you have a basis to know either. Deal just closed. See how it plays out.

[chris719]

Originally Posted by RickFLM4

What deal could ever IPO the next day and make money? You pay a control premium in an acquisition and sell noncontrolling interests in an IPO.

Maybe it will be a giant loss. Maybe it won’t. I have no idea. I don’t think you have a basis to know either. Deal just closed. See how it plays out.

The numbers alone give this a high probability of failure. Obviously nothing is certain. I am pessimistic on the ability to better monetize Twitter.

https://mergersandinquisitions.com/twitter-buyout/

[gatorfast]

Originally Posted by RickFLM4

Based on your comments, I think you are letting your own political views influence what you think you observe.

How so

If you believe my observation is off base then that is your prerogative. But if you havent noticed the positive way that conservatives view Elon vs the negative way that liiberals view him then I suggest perusing the usual political sites like Fox News, Cnn, etc to get a taste. Heck, even in this thread the people who make their politics known on the board are responding in-line to my observation

[vreihen16]

Originally Posted by DETRoadster

He may well have some grand plan to monetize the shit out of Twitter and I'm eager as anyone to see what it is.

One of his first actions was to implement a $7.99/month charge for new verified user accounts, that I'll bet will be applied to existing verified user accounts before long.....

[Llarry]

I don't tweet and don't follow the tech industry, but it seems to me that Elon Musk is very well-deserving of whatever disaster is brewing on his purchase of Twitter.

[gatorfast]

Originally Posted by Onesie

[COLOR="Red"] "defending conservative misinformation spreaders like Trump, and even promoting misinformation himself with his recent Pelosi tweet" [/COLOR]

What is inaccurate about that?

[gatorfast]

Originally Posted by Onesie

Like we all agreed, we should leave politics out of the conversation. You shouldn’t have brought your political views to the conversation as they’re not important to the discussion at hand. But as noted, at least we all know what your views are, and how they shape your opinions on other things.

Those aren't my political views, those are events which happened and reinforce my original premise.

But agree, let's move on from politics. Sorry to distract!