09-14-2022, 01:35 PM | #397 |
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It's incredibly intriguing that the "nah, this is impossible" crowd (and also climate change deniers, apparently) repeatedly refutes the idea of simply starting anything.
13 years is quite a while. I'm assuming every single one of you is rational enough to agree that there's some unthought-of advancement that could make this feasible in "X" amount of time. The crowd shouting that EVs are not the future (and that we shouldn't take any steps now to make change) seem to be the same crowd that would have an absolute aneurysm if they were forced to buy a mild-hybrid 4-cyl because of ICE emission constraints. So let me ask: those of you who can't (or refuse to) get behind the EV wave: In the event we kept improving ICE engines to meet more and more strict emissions (which anyone with an engineering degree knows is virtually impossible on the combustion side, so the deficit must be offset by the EV portion of the engine), are you truly stating that you'd take some triple-catted AMG 4-cyl with a hybrid system (the most power 4 pot in the world is AMG's turbo M139 making 400 hp) over a 500+ hp EV? It seems like it's less and less about power and more about hugging gasoline, which is quite odd for an enthusiasts' forum.
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09-14-2022, 01:40 PM | #398 |
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Also something that struck me as very funny:
> posters above discount the idea of hypothetical battery advancements, grid improvements, etc > posters then tout the merit of hypothetical improvements to ICE (like novel metals for thermal dissipation and weight savings)
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09-14-2022, 01:49 PM | #399 | |
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You want to bet your farm on non-existent technology. Go for it. You want to bet everyone else's too? Is that rational? |
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09-14-2022, 01:52 PM | #400 | ||
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It's like evolution, it's real and makes some people uncomfortable. Some people deny it's real, but I'm not going to post links to Darwin's work or Gould's, or Dawkins etc. It's there, go read it. If you still don't believe, I think it's not an issue of education or information, but something else. Rational ignorance or deliberate ignorance maybe. It's real, it happens, and interestingly enough, there are likely important evolutionary origins to it (important to our survival at some point). But no, posting a bunch of linked to what is or should be uncontroversial links is not my things (OK, sometimes I succumb). I mean this not in a snarky way, but conversationally and respectfully. |
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09-14-2022, 02:14 PM | #401 | |
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It's asinine to sit here and say, "let's do nothing, let's continue on as we are right now." ICEs can't get good enough.
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09-14-2022, 02:15 PM | #402 | |
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- FastTrack permitting and clear regulatory hurdles for new generation to be built out, and not just renewables - Some sort of eminent domain or something to get tranches of new conductor strung (This one will be the hardest) - Regulatory changes in the Power Pools, increasing staffing to get pool studies done in a reasonable and timely fashion - Sweeping federal regulatory changes unshackling the utilities from renewables and instead allowing them to make the best decision for the given location in terms of efficiency and grid mix diversity (Right now they're being paid off to sequester carbon baseload for renewables around the US) - Sweeping state regulatory changes combined with working with all of the various generation companies to ramp and expand - A commission started to analyze the various costs of generation in particular locations with a mind of driving down overall cost and increasing efficiency rather than "just be green" - Some sort of liaison between the CARB and the people who produce the power, these guys have no goddamn idea what they're asking and that much is clear, with a clear publicly available plan to achieve this I think even starting with the last point would be a good step. But I hope this short list clears up why I'm such an alarmist about this because it needs to start now, not in 2-5 or 10 years in order to be ready.
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09-14-2022, 02:20 PM | #403 | |
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Here is a magic wand for you to use to solve your grid problems. |
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09-14-2022, 02:24 PM | #404 | |
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09-14-2022, 02:34 PM | #405 | |
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Also, the fact of the matter is not everyone is qualified or cut out for this kind of work anyway. If we think the people already running things have time to spare for these kinds of overhauls, who in turn will do the work they can barely get done now? Many already work mandatory overtime just to keep the lights on. In my utility, the largest single factor preventing us from achieving our corporate goals is labor shortages and training gaps. More money won't fix those problems, and neither will some new technology. |
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09-14-2022, 02:42 PM | #406 | |||||
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You've assigned something impossible as a condition, it's little wonder why your position is so dogmatic.
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09-14-2022, 02:43 PM | #407 | |
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09-14-2022, 02:45 PM | #408 | ||
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09-14-2022, 02:45 PM | #409 |
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09-14-2022, 02:46 PM | #410 |
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False dichotomy. No one is "betting the farm", or maybe we disagree with what that term means.
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09-14-2022, 02:47 PM | #411 |
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09-14-2022, 02:50 PM | #412 | |
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Have I ever? |
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09-14-2022, 03:00 PM | #413 | |
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- production will be slowed as the deadline approaches, making supply smaller and prices higher - to minimize costs, ICE infrastructure - fuel stations / oil change businesses, parts warehouses, etc - will be maintained to a bare minimum and shuttered as demand wanes (business economics 101) - ICE engineering jobs will be minimized and/or eliminated - along with those highly skilled professionals (hopefully) moving on to other industries - factories and other production infrastructure will be retooled or abandoned and replaced. How do you reverse each of the above casualties of a hard changeover to EVs? I work in software development. We do more than write code. Part of every release is a ROLLBACK PLAN, which is discussed and validated before each and every release. What if things don't go as expected? What if it is a big thing, or one small thing that has a snowball effect? If we need to, we can rollback some or all of the code, effectively undoing the errant part of the release. With or without a plan to go forward, California and the other lemming states need a CTRL-Z keystroke combination. If they don't have it, they are betting the farm.
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09-14-2022, 03:03 PM | #414 | ||
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No that's not what I am saying at all. If Z cannot be accomplished, then, other options for Z should be explored. Z cannot say X is invalid, because X in my scenario isn't the action we must take, but that there is need for action. Quote:
If someone is an expert at farming and says X (we need more water for their crops), but the engineer says there is no way to Z (transport enough water) to keep the crops alive. The inability to Z (transport enough water) doesn't change the fact that X (we need more water for their crops). The solution, then, is for the engineer to build or invent the aqueduct to solve for Z (transport enough water).
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09-14-2022, 03:03 PM | #415 | |
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We as a society just aren't embracing trade skills, and few college programs teach these perquisites anymore. This will get worse before it gets better. We keep rising wages, but it doesn't produce more qualified candidates. I recently had to dumb our test down just to get applicants past the first hurdle. |
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09-14-2022, 03:05 PM | #416 | |
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09-14-2022, 03:07 PM | #417 | ||
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09-14-2022, 03:15 PM | #418 | ||
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