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      12-09-2022, 04:37 PM   #265
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Originally Posted by M3WC View Post
Yet to be defined statement.

What percentage of vehicle on US roads will be EV by 2030?

Since you already backed off your "majority" statement. Put a number out there.
I guess you didn’t catch it when I said half or “maybe even more” at 2030.

See you guys in 2030.
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      12-09-2022, 05:33 PM   #266
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Originally Posted by BGM-M3COMP View Post
Ba boom!!!!
Did you read the article ?

:

Projections say 22 percent of power in 2022 will be from green sources, 2023 will see the figure grow to 24 percent, and the percentage will continue to increase.

So if the grid gets 2% more green per year, for 7 years in a row, it will be 14.8% more green. If we go from 6% EV's to 50% EV's in 7 years, isn't that going to mean EV's will be less and less green per mile driven every year?

Approximately 1/3 of all household energy consumption is transportation (vehicle fuel). If we add that much energy load to the electric grid to convert that 1/3 consumption to be only sourced by electricity, the green factor of that grid won't keep pace.

An this completely ignores that cars are charged at night when there is very little green energy. A very large portion of that green energy is only available in daylight hours. The grid is already unbalanced, this this will amplify that imbalance.

It's taking something that is already a problem, and making it rapidly much worse.
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      12-09-2022, 05:37 PM   #267
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Originally Posted by BGM-M3COMP View Post
I guess you didn’t catch it when I said half or “maybe even more” at 2030.

See you guys in 2030.
So you are not only going to make, but sell 20 million cars in the US each year, 7 years in a row, and stop all ICE sales? Have you done the math on your predictions?
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      12-09-2022, 05:52 PM   #268
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Originally Posted by BGM-M3COMP View Post
The whole point was to prove it’s going to happen and they’re not backing out. I never said it’ll happen on year “x”.
The whole point is that they are the ones saying it, and then backing out, as mentioned in this thread, and as predicted. You didn't say it would happen on year "X", but they did. They being Tesla. It's not about what you predicted, it's factual evidence they actually have done exactly as stated.

Remember, You asked for it.
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      12-09-2022, 06:32 PM   #269
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Originally Posted by BGM-M3COMP View Post
I guess you didn’t catch it when I said half or “maybe even more” at 2030.

See you guys in 2030.
What do you have to back up more than half of vehicles on the road will be EV be 2030? Just a hunch, data? You are 40% off most industry studies.

"The projected 26.4 million EVs will make up nearly 10 percent of the 259 million light-duty vehicles (cars and light trucks) expected to be on U.S. roads in 2030."

https://www.eei.org/News/news/All/ee...-roads-in-2030

Quote:
Originally Posted by chad86tsi View Post
So you are not only going to make, but sell 20 million cars in the US each year, 7 years in a row, and stop all ICE sales? Have you done the math on your predictions?
17mill new cars are sold each year. The current administration own goals is to have 1/2 of new car sales be all electric by 2030. It is mathematically impossible to have half or more of registered vehicles in US be electric by 2030.
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      12-09-2022, 06:39 PM   #270
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Originally Posted by M3WC View Post
17mill new cars are sold each year. The current administration own goals is to have 1/2 of new car sales be all electric by 2030. It is mathematically impossible to have half or more of registered vehicles in US be electric by 2030.
And this assumes we aren't in a recession at any point in the near future. It was under 12 million annual sales in the last recession. Does anyone here see any chance of recession?
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      12-10-2022, 02:10 AM   #271
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Originally Posted by RM7 View Post
Good read for the Whatabout Nuts...

https://www.motortrend.com/features/...being-lied-to/
The article skipped right over the lithium mining part. Oops. Lol.
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      12-10-2022, 07:54 AM   #272
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Originally Posted by chad86tsi View Post
The whole point is that they are the ones saying it, and then backing out, as mentioned in this thread, and as predicted. You didn't say it would happen on year "X", but they did. They being Tesla. It's not about what you predicted, it's factual evidence they actually have done exactly as stated.

Remember, You asked for it.
What did the links say though?

When did Tesla say they’re bringing this out?

The fact they still are debunks what you’re saying. Again you’re talking about now, or next year or 2030. I said it’s going to happen and they’re going to be the first.

Imagine all this just because people don’t believe this ev transition is real lol. Hilarious.

50% ev by 2030 on the way!!
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      12-10-2022, 09:45 AM   #273
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chad86tsi View Post
did you read the article ?

:

projections say 22 percent of power in 2022 will be from green sources, 2023 will see the figure grow to 24 percent, and the percentage will continue to increase.

so if the grid gets 2% more green per year, for 7 years in a row, it will be 14.8% more green. If we go from 6% ev's to 50% ev's in 7 years, isn't that going to mean ev's will be less and less green per mile driven every year?

Approximately 1/3 of all household energy consumption is transportation (vehicle fuel). If we add that much energy load to the electric grid to convert that 1/3 consumption to be only sourced by electricity, the green factor of that grid won't keep pace.

An this completely ignores that cars are charged at night when there is very little green energy. A very large portion of that green energy is only available in daylight hours. The grid is already unbalanced, this this will amplify that imbalance.

It's taking something that is already a problem, and making it rapidly much worse.
Quote:
Originally Posted by M3WC View Post
What do you have to back up more than half of vehicles on the road will be EV be 2030? Just a hunch, data? You are 40% off most industry studies.

"The projected 26.4 million EVs will make up nearly 10 percent of the 259 million light-duty vehicles (cars and light trucks) expected to be on U.S. roads in 2030."

https://www.eei.org/News/news/All/ee...-roads-in-2030


17mill new cars are sold each year. The current administration own goals is to have 1/2 of new car sales be all electric by 2030. It is mathematically impossible to have half or more of registered vehicles in US be electric by 2030.

STOP POSTING MATH PROBLEMS on THE INTERNET. It's MAKING ME LOOK BAD!

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      12-10-2022, 09:53 AM   #274
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chad86tsi View Post
https://insideevs.com/news/597430/st...vrolet-malibu/

People won't buy only the most efficient EV's for the same reason they don't only buy the most efficient ICE's. Factoring for that, how much progress will we really make?

As has been mentioned elsewhere in this forum, the Hummer EV sold out very quickly. Yea progress...
Nice!
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      12-10-2022, 11:56 AM   #275
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BGM-M3COMP View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by M3WC View Post
Yet to be defined statement.

What percentage of vehicle on US roads will be EV by 2030?

Since you already backed off your "majority" statement. Put a number out there.
I guess you didn’t catch it when I said half or “maybe even more” at 2030.

See you guys in 2030.
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      12-10-2022, 01:13 PM   #276
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BGM-M3COMP View Post
What did the links say though?

When did Tesla say they’re bringing this out?
Tesla claimed in 2016 that all its new vehicles had the hardware capability for “full self-driving,” and it would soon offer complementary software for the cars to drive themselves. Tesla CEO Elon Musk has said every year from 2015 to 2022 that self-driving Teslas were probably a year or two away.


https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/15/busin...dmv/index.html


The correspondence between Tesla and the California DMV notes that FSD and Autopilot are both SAE Level 2 automation.
https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a3...-self-driving/


The key correspondence comes from December 28, 2020, between Tesla’s associate general counsel Eric C. Williams and California DMV’s chief of the autonomous vehicles branch, Miguel D. Acosta. A letter details the capabilities of both Autopilot and FSD: “Currently neither Autopilot nor FSD Capability is an autonomous system, and currently no comprising feature, whether singularly or collectively, is autonomous or makes our vehicles autonomous,” Williams states.



Quote:
The fact they still are debunks what you’re saying.
Are you saying that lying and continually failing, and then pushing out the deadlines are not the same as backing out? They have backed out of the dates, and the lawyers have backed out of the claims Elon has made (see quote above).



Quote:
Imagine all this just because people don’t believe this ev transition is real lol. Hilarious.
Imagine being that guy that is arguing against a point no one has made, and claiming victory when he burns down his strawman. Yah, that's you.


Quote:
50% ev by 2030 on the way!
You got a secret EV factory that will be giving away cars? You have 7 years to make and sell about 125,000,000 EV's in a market which generally runs a 7 year average of 17 million new vehicles a year of all types in good economic times. Your starting point in 2022 is still well under 1 million.

Even if they were free, you have to find 125 million people that want them and have a way to support them.


https://www.latimes.com/business/sto...ot%20a%20fraud.


The California Department of Motor Vehicles says it’s looking into the matter as well. While Musk was making bold predictions about full self-driving, the DMV and Tesla were trading emails in 2019 and 2020 that confirm the company’s Full Self-Driving mode, also known as City Streets, was a Level 2 technology. The emails were released under a public records request by legal document publisher Plainsite. Under the Level 2 label, Tesla’s system is no more capable of autonomous driving than similar driver-assistance packages sold by General Motors, Ford and other companies.

Also, whatever happened to Tesla robo-taxi's?

"If you fast forward a year, maybe a year three months, we'll have over a million robo-taxis on the road." - Elon Musk April 2019


Or how about the plaid plus? That was a car that was planned, advertized, sold (though reservations) then legitimately straight up canceled, -after- people put deposits on it.

Tesla is pulling the plug on the most expensive version of its flagship sedan, the Model S Plaid Plus, CEO Elon Musk announced on Twitter.

The company had previously announced plans to sell the premium car — which was advertised as being able to go more than 520 miles on a fully charged battery — for almost $150,000, $30,000 more than the standard “Plaid” version.

Plaid+ is canceled. No need, as Plaid is just so good,” Musk tweeted Sunday.


https://nypost.com/2021/06/07/tesla-...usk-announces/
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      12-10-2022, 02:23 PM   #277
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If anyone won in this thread it’s gotta be chad86tsi
But not like Tesla ever over promised and underdelivered because… elon
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      12-10-2022, 02:50 PM   #278
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chad86tsi View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by BGM-M3COMP View Post
What did the links say though?

When did Tesla say they’re bringing this out?
Tesla claimed in 2016 that all its new vehicles had the hardware capability for “full self-driving,” and it would soon offer complementary software for the cars to drive themselves. Tesla CEO Elon Musk has said every year from 2015 to 2022 that self-driving Teslas were probably a year or two away.


https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/15/busin...dmv/index.html


The correspondence between Tesla and the California DMV notes that FSD and Autopilot are both SAE Level 2 automation.
https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a3...-self-driving/


The key correspondence comes from December 28, 2020, between Tesla’s associate general counsel Eric C. Williams and California DMV’s chief of the autonomous vehicles branch, Miguel D. Acosta. A letter details the capabilities of both Autopilot and FSD: “Currently neither Autopilot nor FSD Capability is an autonomous system, and currently no comprising feature, whether singularly or collectively, is autonomous or makes our vehicles autonomous,” Williams states.



Quote:
The fact they still are debunks what you’re saying.
Are you saying that lying and continually failing, and then pushing out the deadlines are not the same as backing out? They have backed out of the dates, and the lawyers have backed out of the claims Elon has made (see quote above).



Quote:
Imagine all this just because people don’t believe this ev transition is real lol. Hilarious.
Imagine being that guy that is arguing against a point no one has made, and claiming victory when he burns down his strawman. Yah, that's you.


Quote:
50% ev by 2030 on the way!
You got a secret EV factory that will be giving away cars? You have 7 years to make and sell about 125,000,000 EV's in a market which generally runs a 7 year average of 17 million new vehicles a year of all types in good economic times. Your starting point in 2022 is still well under 1 million.

Even if they were free, you have to find 125 million people that want them and have a way to support them.


https://www.latimes.com/business/sto...ot%20a%20fraud.


The California Department of Motor Vehicles says it’s looking into the matter as well. While Musk was making bold predictions about full self-driving, the DMV and Tesla were trading emails in 2019 and 2020 that confirm the company’s Full Self-Driving mode, also known as City Streets, was a Level 2 technology. The emails were released under a public records request by legal document publisher Plainsite. Under the Level 2 label, Tesla’s system is no more capable of autonomous driving than similar driver-assistance packages sold by General Motors, Ford and other companies.

Also, whatever happened to Tesla robo-taxi's?

"If you fast forward a year, maybe a year three months, we'll have over a million robo-taxis on the road." - Elon Musk April 2019


Or how about the plaid plus? That was a car that was planned, advertized, sold (though reservations) then legitimately straight up canceled, -after- people put deposits on it.

Tesla is pulling the plug on the most expensive version of its flagship sedan, the Model S Plaid Plus, CEO Elon Musk announced on Twitter.

The company had previously announced plans to sell the premium car — which was advertised as being able to go more than 520 miles on a fully charged battery — for almost $150,000, $30,000 more than the standard “Plaid” version.

Plaid+ is canceled. No need, as Plaid is just so good,” Musk tweeted Sunday.


https://nypost.com/2021/06/07/tesla-...usk-announces/
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      12-10-2022, 06:48 PM   #279
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Thanks, all, for the entertainment — a good distraction from the daily news
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      12-11-2022, 07:23 AM   #280
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Originally Posted by kyriian View Post
If anyone won in this thread it’s gotta be chad86tsi
But not like Tesla ever over promised and underdelivered because… elon
In what way has he won?

Tesla even admitted they are late to every plan they do.

Their tesla SEMI was supposed to be released back when? 2017? It's brought out now, 2022. So 5 years later.

If elon suggests this could come, or improved heavily over FSD by 2024, you figure 5 year delay time, 2029. Right to that magic 2030 people are implying that i'm suggesting fully autonomous driving will be by.

So again, i hate to keep shitting on these arguments, but the timeline has spoken.

If for any case we move back to ICE, and eliminate EV's all together, because now people are talking about steering wheel less cars to go off topic because they already lost the EV argument, then i will admit i lost the argument.

But i haven't, and 2030 we will see that gigantic EV swing. With fully autonomous not too far behind IMO.

It's good to be a cheerleader in the moment. But that's like claiming victory when your team is up at halftime.

There's still another halftime left, and that's where i will claim my victory, AGAIN.

Jesus christ it's sunday guys. Do i really have to keep killing you on a sunday too?
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      12-11-2022, 08:16 AM   #281
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BGM-M3COMP View Post
In what way has he won?

Tesla even admitted they are late to every plan they do.

Their tesla SEMI was supposed to be released back when? 2017? It's brought out now, 2022. So 5 years later.

If elon suggests this could come, or improved heavily over FSD by 2024, you figure 5 year delay time, 2029. Right to that magic 2030 people are implying that i'm suggesting fully autonomous driving will be by.

So again, i hate to keep shitting on these arguments, but the timeline has spoken.

If for any case we move back to ICE, and eliminate EV's all together, because now people are talking about steering wheel less cars to go off topic because they already lost the EV argument, then i will admit i lost the argument.

But i haven't, and 2030 we will see that gigantic EV swing. With fully autonomous not too far behind IMO.

It's good to be a cheerleader in the moment. But that's like claiming victory when your team is up at halftime.

There's still another halftime left, and that's where i will claim my victory, AGAIN.

Jesus christ it's sunday guys. Do i really have to keep killing you on a sunday too?
You litterally have no counterpoints to anyone here. LOL.
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      12-11-2022, 08:48 AM   #282
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Efthreeoh View Post
You litterally have no counterpoints to anyone here. LOL.
He’s structured his “arguments” such that he always wins. When will X happen? I don’t know, but it definitely will and everyone is WRONG. How many X will be made in Y years? Doesn’t matter, it will happen eventually.

You guys need to stop trying to reason with him. If the question is “could this happen eventually”, then the answer is always a resounding “possibly”. The sensible adults in the room have made convincing arguments and presented evidence - there’s literally nothing that can be said to convince him because by his logic, as long as there’s a .00001% chance of something happening, he wins.
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I look forward to the power and charging shit show that will happen when only 10% of the US vehicles are EV... lol

The infrastructure is years behind the actual vehicles. As always, like with 5G we are putting the cart ahead of the horse... if you love being a beta tester then this is right for you.
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      12-11-2022, 11:06 AM   #284
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I just like playing, kinda like with a puppy; it reacts but really doesn't know why.
Golden retriever???
It doesn't know what's happening but just happy to be a part of it
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      12-11-2022, 12:10 PM   #285
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Originally Posted by ASAP View Post
I look forward to the power and charging shit show that will happen when only 10% of the US vehicles are EV... lol

The infrastructure is years behind the actual vehicles. As always, like with 5G we are putting the cart ahead of the horse... if you love being a beta tester then this is right for you.
The average house uses 886 kWh per month. Souorce : https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.p...%20per%20month.

The Tesla Semi uses 1000 KWH per 30 minute charge. Source :
https://topelectricsuv.com/news/tesl...la_Megacharger

there are 720 hours in a month, so there are 1440 half hours in a month. A Tesla charger consumes more load in 30 minutes than a typical house does in a whole month. The difference ratio of 1.129 : 1.0 more.

The semi mega charger is charging a Teslsa SEMI at an instantaneous total load 1625 houses whenever it plugs in. For each and every semi...

How many of these are we going to plug in, where will they plug in, and when (time of day)?

THere are ~2 million trucks on the road. If we converted them all and charged them all fully, it's load equivalent of 3.25 billion houses.

It sounds alarmist, but think about it, a house has a whole month to consume it's energy, the semi consumes more than a whole house in just 30 minutes, and if it's being driven, it needs to do this daily. If a semi is used regularly and has to charge 20 times in a month, that's 1625 houses of load x 2 million trucks x 20 charges = 65 billion houses of load applied to the grid every month.

There are ~150 million houses in the US.

Yah, we are fucked...
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      12-11-2022, 12:15 PM   #286
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No blasphemy, please
You are highly disrespectful, BGM-M3COMP, talking about “Sunday”
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