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      04-09-2020, 04:43 PM   #3719
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Originally Posted by Wolf 335 View Post
EV are a freight train without brakes.

There is no stopping this movement into the future.
EV's have no character ,there is no emotion in their performance . And when the torque and power is required , the battery is dead again ..
They are like laptops on wheels and they sound like a vacuum cleaner .

Yesterday I watched the first driver reviews from the new 992 Turbo-S . And I thought...Hell yeah !
I don't need those things when I'm stuck in traffic for an hr. That's what weekend cars are for.
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      04-09-2020, 10:35 PM   #3720
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Originally Posted by Murf993 View Post
EV is like a digital watch or smart phone, sure it keeps good time but they are disposable and will be replaced by the new model. ICE are like a mechanical watch, they have soul and are something to be enjoyed and kept.
This is a very good analogy, including the points that future ICE cars will cost a ton of money, be built by boutique manufacturers, will be mostly used as fashion accessories and not for actual transportation, and will be owned only by a small percentage of the population.
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      04-10-2020, 05:49 AM   #3721
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ynguldyn View Post
This is a very good analogy, including the points that future ICE cars will cost a ton of money, be built by boutique manufacturers, will be mostly used as fashion accessories and not for actual transportation, and will be owned only by a small percentage of the population.
And during a prolong power outage I'm able to still tell the time with my mechanical watch.
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      04-10-2020, 06:01 AM   #3722
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ynguldyn View Post
This is a very good analogy, including the points that future ICE cars will cost a ton of money, be built by boutique manufacturers, will be mostly used as fashion accessories and not for actual transportation, and will be owned only by a small percentage of the population.
Perhaps, but there are still a lot of ICE cars on the roads today. And as we can all agree about 98% of all vehicles sold this year will be ICE. Even as people move to EV and they take market share the average life expectancy of a car sold today is 11.8 years. Nobody knows for sure how long it will take for EV's to take over the majority of the market or if they will ever for that matter. But given the infrastructure requirements for both ICE and EV it's pretty safe to say that ICE will be around for decades.
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      04-10-2020, 07:00 PM   #3723
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Originally Posted by Wolf 335 View Post
I get what you're saying, however it is inevitable that all cars will be EVs at some point down the line. Not in our life time, but it will happen.
Unless you plan on being dead in 20 years, it'll be in your lifetime ... i dunno about "all cars" but certainly the majority and likely most.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ynguldyn View Post
This is a very good analogy, including the points that future ICE cars will cost a ton of money, be built by boutique manufacturers, will be mostly used as fashion accessories and not for actual transportation, and will be owned only by a small percentage of the population.
This! I did two things as young teen: build cars (because I had too if I wanted to go places) and ride horses (state-owned public park stable). These days, every week when I hike I pass 5-10 people on horseback and, when they're done riding, they load them up trailers and take them to back to where ever. A good friend bought property to keep his daughter's horse. Lots of people have recreational horses, and some still use them for work (drovers, cowboys, et al)

In 1900 the notion an automatic carriage - that needed a refined fuel! - would replace horses that ate grass next to the road was so ridiculous it wasn't taken credibly. In 1930, city kids never knew there were horses used there.

My favorite automatic watch, btw, is my Sinn U2: it's a fucking german battle tank; I've literally knocked chunks of steel off of door frames accidentally and the U2's pvd-coated tegimented submarine steel doesn't even have a mark on it. Such a badass watch - here with the red, white, and blue look strap:


my favorite quartz watch is my Bathy's Benthic Ti, here with the kevlar strap - it's my choice for ocean sports due to the grade 5 Ti and reliable quartz accuracy:


but I also love g-shocks, both quartz and digital (square!) so I'm drivetrain agnostic (man, i'd love a seiko springdrive, just haven't found one I like)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Murf993 View Post
But given the infrastructure requirements for both ICE and EV it's pretty safe to say that ICE will be around for decades.
I have the exact opposite thought:

ICE has super long, massively complex, fragile, supply chains that are already disrupted. Further, institutional investors, especially ESG, are running from oil companies which will make it much more costly for them to maintain their infrastructure, much less build new.

On the flip-side, BEV/EV, and e-power products and services, are at the very beginning of an economic boom - you're about to see an explosion of new products: commercial, residential, recreational, not to mention automotive and trucking, and all of this will be local jobs, small businesses boom, et al.

And we already know how much cheaper capital is for BEV/EV companies building infrastructure, Tesla has to turn it down, and investors are starving for a way to invest in electric-tech. I have no doubt in the next 2-3 years - maybe this year! - we'll hear a Big Oil company announce a huge investment or initiative into electric, renaming themselves with something-something-energy, and removing "oil" or "petroleum".

The human mind can't intuitively understand exponential growth, but when you graph it you see it - BEV/EV is about to go vertical and Tesla is simply the first indicator.
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I thought the next M4 was going to be a flying car powered by bloomin' onions and a teaspoon of mayonnaise. At least that's what I read on the internet @ BimmerPoop.org.

Last edited by GrussGott; 04-10-2020 at 07:13 PM..
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      04-11-2020, 01:15 AM   #3724
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GrussGott View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wolf 335 View Post
I get what you're saying, however it is inevitable that all cars will be EVs at some point down the line. Not in our life time, but it will happen.
Unless you plan on being dead in 20 years, it'll be in your lifetime ... i dunno about "all cars" but certainly the majority and likely most.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ynguldyn View Post
This is a very good analogy, including the points that future ICE cars will cost a ton of money, be built by boutique manufacturers, will be mostly used as fashion accessories and not for actual transportation, and will be owned only by a small percentage of the population.
This! I did two things as young teen: build cars (because I had too if I wanted to go places) and ride horses (state-owned public park stable). These days, every week when I hike I pass 5-10 people on horseback and, when they're done riding, they load them up trailers and take them to back to where ever. A good friend bought property to keep his daughter's horse. Lots of people have recreational horses, and some still use them for work (drovers, cowboys, et al)

In 1900 the notion an automatic carriage - that needed a refined fuel! - would replace horses that ate grass next to the road was so ridiculous it wasn't taken credibly. In 1930, city kids never knew there were horses used there.

My favorite automatic watch, btw, is my Sinn U2: it's a fucking german battle tank; I've literally knocked chunks of steel off of door frames accidentally and the U2's pvd-coated tegimented submarine steel doesn't even have a mark on it. Such a badass watch - here with the red, white, and blue look strap:


my favorite quartz watch is my Bathy's Benthic Ti, here with the kevlar strap - it's my choice for ocean sports due to the grade 5 Ti and reliable quartz accuracy:


but I also love g-shocks, both quartz and digital (square!) so I'm drivetrain agnostic (man, i'd love a seiko springdrive, just haven't found one I like)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Murf993 View Post
But given the infrastructure requirements for both ICE and EV it's pretty safe to say that ICE will be around for decades.
I have the exact opposite thought:

ICE has super long, massively complex, fragile, supply chains that are already disrupted. Further, institutional investors, especially ESG, are running from oil companies which will make it much more costly for them to maintain their infrastructure, much less build new.

On the flip-side, BEV/EV, and e-power products and services, are at the very beginning of an economic boom - you're about to see an explosion of new products: commercial, residential, recreational, not to mention automotive and trucking, and all of this will be local jobs, small businesses boom, et al.

And we already know how much cheaper capital is for BEV/EV companies building infrastructure, Tesla has to turn it down, and investors are starving for a way to invest in electric-tech. I have no doubt in the next 2-3 years - maybe this year! - we'll hear a Big Oil company announce a huge investment or initiative into electric, renaming themselves with something-something-energy, and removing "oil" or "petroleum".

The human mind can't intuitively understand exponential growth, but when you graph it you see it - BEV/EV is about to go vertical and Tesla is simply the first indicator.
It won't even be the majority. That's a pipe dream.
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      04-11-2020, 02:44 AM   #3725
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sedan_Clan View Post
It won't even be the majority. That's a pipe dream.
You donít have to like or buy them, but I think they will definitely be the majority. Too many advantages going forward, especially as more and more R&D is pumped into batteries and capacitors.
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      04-11-2020, 03:17 AM   #3726
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chris719 View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sedan_Clan View Post
It won't even be the majority. That's a pipe dream.
You don't have to like or buy them, but I think they will definitely be the majority. Too many advantages going forward, especially as more and more R&D is pumped into batteries and capacitors.
In order for the majority to be on board, middle America would need to buy into it (...which they haven't). Much of the metro areas haven't even bought into it. EV's are a very small portion of the overall car buying experience in the U.S. (...less than 3%). Outside of the metro areas, you won't see EV's, let alone expensive TESLA's. If you think EV's will suddenly become 97% of the cars driven on the road you're high........and I think you should share some with the rest of us.

I believe Norway has close to 50% EV market share, but that's because the sales are driven by government mandates (..e.g....forced). That won't happen here.
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      04-11-2020, 04:59 AM   #3727
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But I see a bright future of electric vehicles. I don't think Tesla is going to lose more. Though oil prices are going to be stable but I think there is a good scope for electric vehicles.
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      04-11-2020, 07:02 AM   #3728
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sedan_Clan View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by chris719 View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sedan_Clan View Post
It won't even be the majority. That's a pipe dream.
You don't have to like or buy them, but I think they will definitely be the majority. Too many advantages going forward, especially as more and more R&D is pumped into batteries and capacitors.
In order for the majority to be on board, middle America would need to buy into it (...which they haven't). Much of the metro areas haven't even bought into it. EV's are a very small portion of the overall car buying experience in the U.S. (...less than 3%). Outside of the metro areas, you won't see EV's, let alone expensive TESLA's. If you think EV's will suddenly become 97% of the cars driven on the road you're high........and I think you should share some with the rest of us.

I believe Norway has close to 50% EV market share, but that's because the sales are driven by government mandates (..e.g....forced). That won't happen here.
This. Even in Metro Areas like say NY area (where I live) there are hardly any EVs. I would say 1 to every 100-200 cars on the road and that's being generous.

Speaking of being high. I'm getting so bored with this lockdown crap I've been tempted to pull out the vape pen and hang in my Man basement. Plenty of Pool, Ping Pong, Darts and Video Games for hours of fun. Haha.

Edit. Only kidding Sedan Clan. Don't come and arrest me
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      04-11-2020, 08:00 AM   #3729
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ///M4ster Yoda View Post
This. Even in Metro Areas like say NY area (where I live) there are hardly any EVs. I would say 1 to every 100-200 cars on the road and that's being generous.

Speaking of being high. I'm getting so bored with this lockdown crap I've been tempted to pull out the vape pen and hang in my Man basement. Plenty of Pool, Ping Pong, Darts and Video Games for hours of fun. Haha.

Edit. Only kidding Sedan Clan. Don't come and arrest me
I can hook you up with a Nurse Practitioner here that will give you a prescription over the phone.
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      04-11-2020, 09:23 AM   #3730
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Murf993 View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by ///M4ster Yoda View Post
This. Even in Metro Areas like say NY area (where I live) there are hardly any EVs. I would say 1 to every 100-200 cars on the road and that's being generous.

Speaking of being high. I'm getting so bored with this lockdown crap I've been tempted to pull out the vape pen and hang in my Man basement. Plenty of Pool, Ping Pong, Darts and Video Games for hours of fun. Haha.

Edit. Only kidding Sedan Clan. Don't come and arrest me
I can hook you up with a Nurse Practitioner here that will give you a prescription over the phone.
I have some "connections". On ski trips up to Vermont we can also just pull off in Mass and hit up a legal dispensary. Easy peasy. Thanks anyway
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      04-11-2020, 11:10 AM   #3731
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"Connections, just can't get no connections...."

Many urban & suburban people park their cars on the street. These EV cars would need to get a fast charge somewhere.
When will we get to, maybe, 10 min for a 300mi charge?

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      04-11-2020, 12:47 PM   #3732
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ///M4ster Yoda View Post
I have some "connections". On ski trips up to Vermont we can also just pull off in Mass and hit up a legal dispensary. Easy peasy. Thanks anyway
The governor is only allowing medical dispensaries to remain open.

What kind of fascist state am I living in?
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      04-11-2020, 01:26 PM   #3733
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sedan_Clan View Post
In order for the majority to be on board, middle America would need to buy into it
Two words, bro: Electric. Beaver.

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Originally Posted by mkoesel View Post
I thought the next M4 was going to be a flying car powered by bloomin' onions and a teaspoon of mayonnaise. At least that's what I read on the internet @ BimmerPoop.org.
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      04-11-2020, 01:40 PM   #3734
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GrussGott View Post
Two words, bro: Electric. Beaver.

For a fresh and unbiased opinion, my 9 year old daughter just said, "whatever those things are on the front, they look weird"
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      04-11-2020, 01:45 PM   #3735
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GrussGott View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sedan_Clan View Post
In order for the majority to be on board, middle America would need to buy into it
Two words, bro: Electric. Beaver.

terrible indeed. i tried making that point rather clumsily on another thread (i called new age styling and bmw jargon bull....t) and was docked 100 reputation points! Guess its the 'law' around here.
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      04-11-2020, 01:45 PM   #3736
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sedan_Clan View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by GrussGott View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wolf 335 View Post
I get what you're saying, however it is inevitable that all cars will be EVs at some point down the line. Not in our life time, but it will happen.
Unless you plan on being dead in 20 years, it'll be in your lifetime ... i dunno about "all cars" but certainly the majority and likely most.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ynguldyn View Post
This is a very good analogy, including the points that future ICE cars will cost a ton of money, be built by boutique manufacturers, will be mostly used as fashion accessories and not for actual transportation, and will be owned only by a small percentage of the population.
This! I did two things as young teen: build cars (because I had too if I wanted to go places) and ride horses (state-owned public park stable). These days, every week when I hike I pass 5-10 people on horseback and, when they're done riding, they load them up trailers and take them to back to where ever. A good friend bought property to keep his daughter's horse. Lots of people have recreational horses, and some still use them for work (drovers, cowboys, et al)

In 1900 the notion an automatic carriage - that needed a refined fuel! - would replace horses that ate grass next to the road was so ridiculous it wasn't taken credibly. In 1930, city kids never knew there were horses used there.

My favorite automatic watch, btw, is my Sinn U2: it's a fucking german battle tank; I've literally knocked chunks of steel off of door frames accidentally and the U2's pvd-coated tegimented submarine steel doesn't even have a mark on it. Such a badass watch - here with the red, white, and blue look strap:
[img]
View post on imgur.com
[/img]

my favorite quartz watch is my Bathy's Benthic Ti, here with the kevlar strap - it's my choice for ocean sports due to the grade 5 Ti and reliable quartz accuracy:
[img]
View post on imgur.com
[/img]

but I also love g-shocks, both quartz and digital (square!) so I'm drivetrain agnostic (man, i'd love a seiko springdrive, just haven't found one I like)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Murf993 View Post
But given the infrastructure requirements for both ICE and EV it's pretty safe to say that ICE will be around for decades.
I have the exact opposite thought:

ICE has super long, massively complex, fragile, supply chains that are already disrupted. Further, institutional investors, especially ESG, are running from oil companies which will make it much more costly for them to maintain their infrastructure, much less build new.

On the flip-side, BEV/EV, and e-power products and services, are at the very beginning of an economic boom - you're about to see an explosion of new products: commercial, residential, recreational, not to mention automotive and trucking, and all of this will be local jobs, small businesses boom, et al.

And we already know how much cheaper capital is for BEV/EV companies building infrastructure, Tesla has to turn it down, and investors are starving for a way to invest in electric-tech. I have no doubt in the next 2-3 years - maybe this year! - we'll hear a Big Oil company announce a huge investment or initiative into electric, renaming themselves with something-something-energy, and removing "oil" or "petroleum".

The human mind can't intuitively understand exponential growth, but when you graph it you see it - BEV/EV is about to go vertical and Tesla is simply the first indicator.
It won't even be the majority. That's a pipe dream.
A large number of people live in urban areas. So it very well could be the majority in numbers. Does that mean people living in rural areas will see more EV's on the road than ICE? No. Most of them will still drive ICE, but that is not indicative of the overall trend.

For example:

Population in Los Angeles: 4 mil
Population in the state of NEVADA: 3 mil
Population in KANSAS: 3 mil
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      04-11-2020, 01:52 PM   #3737
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jmg View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sedan_Clan View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by GrussGott View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wolf 335 View Post
I get what you're saying, however it is inevitable that all cars will be EVs at some point down the line. Not in our life time, but it will happen.
Unless you plan on being dead in 20 years, it'll be in your lifetime ... i dunno about "all cars" but certainly the majority and likely most.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ynguldyn View Post
This is a very good analogy, including the points that future ICE cars will cost a ton of money, be built by boutique manufacturers, will be mostly used as fashion accessories and not for actual transportation, and will be owned only by a small percentage of the population.
This! I did two things as young teen: build cars (because I had too if I wanted to go places) and ride horses (state-owned public park stable). These days, every week when I hike I pass 5-10 people on horseback and, when they're done riding, they load them up trailers and take them to back to where ever. A good friend bought property to keep his daughter's horse. Lots of people have recreational horses, and some still use them for work (drovers, cowboys, et al)

In 1900 the notion an automatic carriage - that needed a refined fuel! - would replace horses that ate grass next to the road was so ridiculous it wasn't taken credibly. In 1930, city kids never knew there were horses used there.

My favorite automatic watch, btw, is my Sinn U2: it's a fucking german battle tank; I've literally knocked chunks of steel off of door frames accidentally and the U2's pvd-coated tegimented submarine steel doesn't even have a mark on it. Such a badass watch - here with the red, white, and blue look strap:
[img]
View post on imgur.com
[/img]

my favorite quartz watch is my Bathy's Benthic Ti, here with the kevlar strap - it's my choice for ocean sports due to the grade 5 Ti and reliable quartz accuracy:
[img]
View post on imgur.com
[/img]

but I also love g-shocks, both quartz and digital (square!) so I'm drivetrain agnostic (man, i'd love a seiko springdrive, just haven't found one I like)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Murf993 View Post
But given the infrastructure requirements for both ICE and EV it's pretty safe to say that ICE will be around for decades.
I have the exact opposite thought:

ICE has super long, massively complex, fragile, supply chains that are already disrupted. Further, institutional investors, especially ESG, are running from oil companies which will make it much more costly for them to maintain their infrastructure, much less build new.

On the flip-side, BEV/EV, and e-power products and services, are at the very beginning of an economic boom - you're about to see an explosion of new products: commercial, residential, recreational, not to mention automotive and trucking, and all of this will be local jobs, small businesses boom, et al.

And we already know how much cheaper capital is for BEV/EV companies building infrastructure, Tesla has to turn it down, and investors are starving for a way to invest in electric-tech. I have no doubt in the next 2-3 years - maybe this year! - we'll hear a Big Oil company announce a huge investment or initiative into electric, renaming themselves with something-something-energy, and removing "oil" or "petroleum".

The human mind can't intuitively understand exponential growth, but when you graph it you see it - BEV/EV is about to go vertical and Tesla is simply the first indicator.
It won't even be the majority. That's a pipe dream.
A large number of people live in urban areas. So it very well could be the majority in numbers. Does that mean people living in rural areas will see more EV's on the road than ICE? No. Most of them will still drive ICE, but that is not indicative of the overall trend.

For example:

Population in Los Angeles: 4 mil
Population in the state of NEVADA: 3 mil
Population in KANSAS: 3 mil
....but it's not! It's not even the majority in EV heavy Norway. EV's would need to gain another 48% of the market share to be the majority. That's not going to happen for a long, long, LONG time. We are in the capitalistic, "I want my freedom(s)" U.S. of A. The government push happening in Norway won't happen here. China's governmental approach won't work here either.

P.S. L.A. has more like 12 million people, and 99% are in ICE cars.
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      04-11-2020, 01:52 PM   #3738
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It won't even be the majority. That's a pipe dream.
You don't have to like or buy them, but I think they will definitely be the majority. Too many advantages going forward, especially as more and more R&D is pumped into batteries and capacitors.
In order for the majority to be on board, middle America would need to buy into it (...which they haven't). Much of the metro areas haven't even bought into it. EV's are a very small portion of the overall car buying experience in the U.S. (...less than 3%). Outside of the metro areas, you won't see EV's, let alone expensive TESLA's. If you think EV's will suddenly become 97% of the cars driven on the road you're high........and I think you should share some with the rest of us.

I believe Norway has close to 50% EV market share, but that's because the sales are driven by government mandates (..e.g....forced). That won't happen here.
Actually, China is the biggest automotive market in the world. US is #1 and California is #1 in the US next to Texas and Florida by a large margin.


https://www.statista.com/statistics/...-by-key-state/
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      04-11-2020, 01:54 PM   #3739
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It won't even be the majority. That's a pipe dream.
You don't have to like or buy them, but I think they will definitely be the majority. Too many advantages going forward, especially as more and more R&D is pumped into batteries and capacitors.
In order for the majority to be on board, middle America would need to buy into it (...which they haven't). Much of the metro areas haven't even bought into it. EV's are a very small portion of the overall car buying experience in the U.S. (...less than 3%). Outside of the metro areas, you won't see EV's, let alone expensive TESLA's. If you think EV's will suddenly become 97% of the cars driven on the road you're high........and I think you should share some with the rest of us.

I believe Norway has close to 50% EV market share, but that's because the sales are driven by government mandates (..e.g....forced). That won't happen here.
Actually, China is the biggest automotive market in the world. US is #1 and California is #1 in the US next to Texas and Florida by a large margin.


https://www.statista.com/statistics/...-by-key-state/
What does that have to do with what I stated? My comment was specific to EV market share, so I have no idea why you're citing the information you posted. It's irrelevant.
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      04-11-2020, 02:02 PM   #3740
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A large number of people live in urban areas
I just saw an interesting map with US state counties that are larger than whole states (e.g., like 100 counties in the US have more population than all of Montana).

Anyway, the error "it'll never happen" people are making is they assume things will stay the same - they won't!

(1.) They assume costs of cars, parts, and fuel of ICE won't go up - they will! And availability will go down.

(2.) They assume costs of cars, parts, and fuel of BEV won't go down - they will! And availability will go up.

And then there's going to be a widening of the already wide BEV vs ICE features gap: ICE won't be able to afford to invest in new features AND keep costs down, so ICE features will start eroding. Who's got a Nokia phone?? Or a Blackberry?? They OWNED the features market, now both are dead. Who remembers 1998 Apple? Also dead.

Further, they forget why every major auto manufacturer is running to BEVs: capital costs! Large corporations will simply no longer be able to afford making ICE. (I don't have to mention TSLA's market cap)

BEV Denier Dudes, think about it:

EVERY. SINGLE. ICE manufacturer, has a HUUUUGE 2025 BEV plan. Every one!

If there was any possibility of BEV not taking over there'd be at least one large manufacturer holding out - there isn't.

So, either you know something ICE execs don't, or every auto manufacturer is about to waste hundreds of billions.

EDIT: oh, one other thing - no matter what the US does, at least for now, the world's largest car market - China - still plans on being the #1 manufacturer of BEVs in 2025 - I think that's likely to impact global auto production somehow ... and China made sure TSLA's Shanghai plant was one of the first things to re-open in Feb ...
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